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Majority of UK homeowners predict house price rises

5th October 2011

  • 59% of UK homeowners expect house prices to rise over next 6 months
  • Homeowners predict 2.7% gain in their area but 3.3% gain for their home
  • Confidence among homeowners in the capital falls for first time in 2011

Confidence in the UK housing market is slightly up on last quarter with three fifths (59%) of UK homeowners expecting house prices to rise over the next six months, despite current economic uncertainty.

According to the latest Housing Market Sentiment Survey, the proportion of homeowners expecting prices to rise is up from 57% three months ago. However, confidence remains well below the levels of late 2009 and early 2010 when 80% of homeowners expected house prices to rise.

And the phrase ‘An Englishman’s home is his castle’ has never been truer with owners expecting their own properties to outperform those around them. When asked what would happen to the value of properties in their area, homeowners predicted a 2.7% rise on average over the next six months. But when considering their own home, owners expected prices to grow 3.3% on average. This attitude was reflected in the proportion of homeowners who expect prices to fall over the next six months. 26% felt prices would fall in their area while only 22% thought the value of their own home would fall.

Confidence in the housing market rose or remained the same as last quarter in all regions of the country except two, London and the East Midlands. Not only are homeowners in the capital now less bullish about house prices rising over the next six months but those that do predict rises have also significantly cut their expectations from 6.2% growth three months ago to only 3.6% now.

The largest rise in confidence over the last 3 months has been in Northern Ireland where 54% of homeowners now expect house prices to rise over the next six months, up from 41% three months ago. In England 59% of owners expect house prices to rise, marginally up from 58% three months ago and in Wales 57% expect prices to climb, up from 53%. Confidence in Scotland remains unchanged on last quarter with 58% expecting prices to rise.

Nicholas Leeming of, commented: “This marginal rise in confidence comes amid encouraging news from the lending market which has reported strong lending growth at the end of summer. However, lending conditions remain difficult and as a result we’ve not seen the same level of confidence as early last year when prices were clawing back the ground lost over the recession. Whilst surprising to see confidence fall in London, this is likely due to Londoners feeling prices will now stabilise, following very strong growth over the last twelve months.”

  • invited registered users to participate in this survey which was fielded from 12th to 20th September 2011.
  • There were 5,051 total respondents. 4,644 of these were homeowners. Statistics based on a sample of this size are accurate to within +/- 1.0% with 95% confidence, if the sample is drawn at random from the population it intends to represent.
  • These respondents represent the perspective of the user community and could be considered to represent the population of people interested in the UK residential property market. All statistics are based on the full sample unless otherwise noted.

- Ends -

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